Jaishankar noted that it would be difficult to say what will happen in the future as there are a lot of "contradictions and frictions" out there today.
New Delhi and Beijing are the only two regional capitals that have commented on US President Donald Trump's speech on August 21 outlining the way forward in Afghanistan. The Indian foreign ministry statement was effusive in praise, while the Chinese statement has been one of cautious and guarded hope. Delhi has identified itself with Trump's Afghan strategy, whereas the Chinese stance is calibrated -- observant and objective, keeping a distance, says Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in Islamabad on Monday on his first visit to Pakistan where he is expected to sign a deal for an economic corridor worth $46 billion and other agreement.
'Washington is telegraphing here is its willingness to support a low-grade, limited use of force meant to send a strong message to Pakistan.' 'Perhaps something along the lines of the surgical strikes in 2016, or perhaps something a bit more -- but not much more.'
While we have to hiss loudly and do the lunging bit to keep our foes on their toes, that's only a tactical matter. What is the strategic goal? What is the end game? In my opinion, there is only one possible end game: the unwinding of Pakistan into several pieces: Balochistan, Sind, Balawaristan (Gilgit, Baltistan, the rest of PoK), the Pashtun area Khyber Pakhtunwa which will merge with Afghanistan, and the rump Punjab, says Rajeev Srinivasan.
Beyond the barbed wire and watchtowers, though, lies a story that casts more than a little doubt on whether this dream will ever be realised. Praveen Swami reports.
'China is likely to help Pakistan in keeping the fire burning in J&K to bleed India for its own interests.' A fascinating excerpt from Lieutenant General K Himalay Singh's Making of a General: A Himalayan Echo.
After weighing all the costs and benefits, the next administration is likely to reduce and restructure assistance to Pakistan but not to end it altogether, says Daniel S Markey.
The question really is whether the US can be persuaded to embark on a path of calibrated and stronger sanctions on Pakistan.
'Whether it's investments in Kashmir, building naval facilities, or selling top-of-the-range military equipment, Pakistan could well benefit more under Xi's watch.' 'Do Chinese concerns about the 'Islamisation' of Pakistan give it pause about how quickly to move forward with security and economic projects? At the moment the indication is quite the opposite: China is doubling down on its support to Pakistan, partly because of its fears about where the country is headed.'
'The Pakistani move to ban militant outfits and placate international opinion and Islamabad's openness to a UN security council resolution on Azhar -- instead of beseeching China to cast yet another veto -- enables Islamabad to occupy the high ground,' notes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
The Sino-Pakistan relationship remains fundamentally asymmetrical: Pakistan wants more out of its ties with China than China is willing to offer. Today, when Pakistan's domestic problems are gargantuan, China would be very cautious in involving itself even more, says Harsh V Pant.
'Three security challenges could emerge shortly. The possibility (almost bordering on certainty) is as certain as the fact that night follows day: A terrorist attack by a Pakistan-based group. Chinese intrusion on the border.Communal tension/riots.' Colonel Anil A Athale (retd) explains what the Modi Sarkar needs to be prepared for.
'A collapsing Pakistan may well unleash its nuclear weapons as the last throw of the dice. With a nuclear arsenal of over 50 bombs, even a regional nuclear exchange can devastate the world.'
'Bolstering India's conventional military capability against China is in America's strategic interest,' says military historian Colonel Anil A Athale (retd).
Indians must remember that Pakistanis hate losing to India, at war or in cricket, says Sanjeev Nayyar.
'Islamic State has declared that the liberation of Islamic Xinjiang from China is an objective. Beijing may well find that Pakistan is unable to assist in any meaningful way,' says China expert Jayadeva Ranade.
Aseem Chhabra lists his favourite films from the recent Toronto International Film Festival.
Giving economic aid to Kashmir is like giving TB medicine to a patient suffering from cancer and expecting it to work, says Colonel Anil A Athale (retd).
Describing Pakistan's North Western Frontier Province area as the "fountainhead" of terror activities in the region, India on Thursday said use of terrorism as state policy with deep roots in military establishment there is a major obstacle for peaceful bilateral ties.
'If the US-Pakistan relationship continues to suffer, Pakistan may feel it has less to lose and decide that it need not keep a leash on LeT in order to appease America.' 'A tougher US policy toward Pakistan could lead to an emboldened and strengthened LeT and JeM, resulting in more terrorist attacks in India.'
'India, which climbed the escalation ladder first, has climbed down.'
'It remains unclear what Indian objectives have been realised in precipitating the crisis in the first instance last Tuesday,' notes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
'It would not be incorrect to say that the Chinese-Pakistani strategy of containing India began in the aftermath of the 1965 war.'
'Lingering border disputes and fierce geostrategic competition in South Asia between China and India are likely to temper any cooperation Beijing might hope to achieve with New Delhi in the SCO,' says P K Vasudeva.
Brushing aside India's concerns, China on Monday cemented its "all-weather ties" with Pakistan by agreeing to build a strategic $46 billion (Rs 2.9 lakh crore) economic corridor through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir as part of 51 deals signed, expanding the communist giant's influence in the region.
'By crudely dragging the topic into the bazaar to flog it for momentary pleasure, we turned it into a dead carcass by the time Modi even got back from Xiamen,' says Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
'Any 'de-escalation' that brings down tensions will deprive the BJP of a plank with seamless possibilities to project PM Modi as the 'Iron prime minister' and hype up jingoism in the upcoming election campaign,' notes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
The developments in Af-Pak region, particularly the fall out of Pak political paralysis, would make President Xi Jinping's task a little more complicated, says Colonel R Hariharan.
Pakistan has taken too much of a chance with Pulwama - with the wrong government in India, and at the wrong time.
'India can replicate what Pakistan did to Kulbhushan Jadhav should the need arise.' 'Hopefully, Pakistan will see reason before that transpires,' says Ambassador G Parthasarathy, former high commissioner to Pakistan.
'In India foreign policy is generally handled by the prime minister.' 'One can clearly see the Vajpayee stamp on all this.' 'Only a person with poetic imagination can weave such a complex web,' says Colonel Anil A Athale (retd).
A fleet of eight JF-17 Thunder fighter jets -- jointly made by the two countries -- will escort the Chinese president once his plane enters the Pakistani airspace.
When asked if the Indian investigating agency would be allowed to visit Pakistan, Basit said that 'the whole investigation is not about reciprocity in view'.
'Modi wants to be pragmatic -- acknowledge the problem of Pakistan and that full reconciliation is essentially a non-starter, but at the same time grab the low-hanging fruits (such as trade) to put things on a more even keel, to engender enough stability in the relationship to allow him to focus on other priorities.'
'The vocal pacifists who monopolise the media in India need to answer a simple question: Would they have the Taliban or ISIS take over Kashmir or the rest of the country or let the army do its duty so that we are safe in our beds and free to demonise the soldiers in our cozy drawing rooms and television studios,' asks Colonel Anil A Athale (retd).
'Both nations have a common problem: A rampaging, jingoistic and hostile China which is making substantial territorial claims. In the long run, Japan and India are going to be the victims of Chinese aggression -- so they might as well hang together to contain China,' argues Rajeev Srinivasan.
'Islamabad is only as big as a Delhi suburb.' 'How can a city with just two five star hotels and only one departure gate at their international airport be compared to Delhi with its sprawling airport?' Ambassador T P Sreenivasan finds the pulse of Pakistan after visiting Islamabad for the first time.
With Donald Trump the appeal has to be to his business instincts in which his personal interests seem to play a significant role, says former foreign secretary Kanwal Sibal.
'We could quibble with each other whether there were 25 terrorists killed or 250 killed.' 'The message is more that India undertook such an aerial attack and this attack has actually changed the paradigm.' 'The change in paradigm is that India has shown by the surgical strike in 2016 and the aerial strike of 2019 that we will not just sit back and tolerate terrorism which killed so many of our people.' 'We will hit back and by hitting back we will raise the costs of such activities.'
'Imagine for a moment that the Coast Guard was unable to stop the vessel and it reached Porbandar with its cargo/personnel and targeted the event at which the prime minister was present,' says Colonel Anil A Athale (retd).
